GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS DEAL TODAY
July 22, 2022 -Durt Fibo

Today, July 22, a four-party deal will be signed allowing the export of Ukrainian grain to the waiting world. Russia and Ukraine have committed to an accord, brokered and guaranteed by Turkey and the United Nations, designed to release an estimated 25 million tons of wheat and other essential grain that has been at risk of spoiling in Ukrainian ports for months.

In May, Putin had feinted that an agreement was ready to launch, but the Kremlin then specified only that “During the discussion of the situation in Ukraine, emphasis was placed on ensuring safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas and eliminating the mine threat in their waters,” which other parties saw as a trick to reveal and remove Ukrainian coastal defenses while freeing Russia to continue their offensive objectives. The statement added that –if sanctions were also lifted– Russia could “export significant volumes of fertilizers and agricultural products.”

Indeed, with the new arrangement, Putin has managed to get his profit machine back in action. Side deals were whipped up to give the Istanbul accord value for Russia; two days ago the European Union excepted Russian wheat and fertilizer from sanctioning; the UN will also come to Istanbul to sign a memorandum of understanding excluding Russian grain and fertilizer from any sanctions; and the United States has modified its stance so that Russian fertilizer and “agricultural commodities” are, for now, not included in any trade restrictions. As of the middle of last month, Forbes calculated that Russia has stolen 600,000 tons of Ukrainian grain.

Thus the exportation by Russia of Ukrainian stolen grain will be protected. Due to the dire food situation resulting from the war, however, the time-consuming removal of Ukraine’s mines is not required by the accord. Instead, Ukrainian ships will be allowed to steer their own transports through their own unmined routes, and their own ships will guide others transporting the grain through those same corridors. Both countries agreed to not attack any incoming or outgoing ships. Any hostile acts against transport ships are to be judged by the 4-party joint command and control base in Turkey. The control group is also in charge of inspections, to be conducted in Turkey, even though Russia had argued hard for the right to board Ukraine vessels at sea.
Regarding the operational conditions of Ukraine’s main ports: as of one hour ago, Odesa, Chornomorske, and Yuzhne are harried but free, while Mykolaiv is under bombardment and Kherson still held by Russia. The first three ports are directly on the Black Sea, but the latter two are set back on the Bug and the Dnipro estuaries respectively.

Before Russia attacked on February 24, Ukraine could export as much as 6 million tons of wheat, maize, barely and rapeseed oil per month. The usual Black Sea exports of Ukraine and Russia combined make up around 29% of world wheat, and 80% of the world’s sunflower oil. Russia and its vassal, Belarus, generally export a total of 40% of global potash, which is used in some 95% of fertilizers.

The Istanbul accord is stipulated as binding for 120 days, and is automatically renewable unless contested by one of the parties. It is to take effect as of 1:30 pm today, Istanbul time, and is projected to be fully operating by mid-August, bar any volte-face or other chicanery.